epriezka wrote:It would take an outrageous fluke for the Pirate Party to get into a coalition government with the present electoral system. The Liberals have been bouncing around at 20% of the vote for over 20 years now, and they have not played any role in government since the Lib-Lab pact of the late 1970's.
This is true. Realistically, we aren't going to get any MPs elected at the next Westminster election. FPTP doesn't do us any favours.
However, in 2011there are elections to the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly, both using the additional member system (AMS). We could win seats in those elections with 6% of the vote. There will also be an election to the Northern Ireland assembly in 2011, using STV.
One problem with these elections, from our point of view, is that these bodies don't have much influence on the areas of policy we most care about.
There is every reason to believe electoral dynamics will swing in our favour over time
Yes. PP Sweden got 7% overall, and were the largest party for voters under 30. There's reason to expect their vote share will rise over time, because:
-- the entertainment industry will continue to push for bad laws
-- new voters just becoming 18 are likely to sympathise with our views
-- PP only got 4% of women's votes compared with 12% of men's votes, probably because men tend to be more into technology than women. But women use the internet, use mobile phones, listen to music, etc, the same as men do, so they have just as much reason to support us as men do, and over time they will do so.
I can easily see us getting 15-20% Europe-wide in the 2014 EU election.
but raising expectations too high at the start will only lead to a disappointed and demoralized party later on. Let's focus on the reasons why we are right and build an effective organization before we start predicting electoral success.
Yes. We can't expect overnight success in our first electoral outing. It will take years to build name recognition and support.